Opinion

Prepare for Trump 2.0: you can’t afford to wait

By
By
Nigel Green

Donald Trump is set to retake the Oval Office in January 2025, and his second act promises to shake up markets and policies in ways that demand swift action from investors.

Love him or hate him, Trump’s return signals an era of volatility, opportunity, and risk—one that savvy investors must start preparing for today.

Trump 2.0 won’t be a carbon copy of his first term. This time, he’s coming in with a mandate, a point to prove, and likely fewer guardrails on his most ambitious economic policies.

For investors, this means navigating an unpredictable policy environment where trade wars, deregulation, tax cuts, and government spending may collide to reshape the global economic landscape. Waiting to act isn’t just complacent—it’s potentially costly.

One of Trump’s signature moves in his first term was launching an aggressive trade policy, particularly against China. The tariffs introduced then remain largely intact today, and Trump has shown no signs of softening his stance.

In fact, his rhetoric suggests an escalation. “Economic decoupling” is the buzz phrase, and while it might play well politically, it could disrupt supply chains and rattle markets.

For businesses and investors, this means renewed pressure on global trade. Export-reliant companies and emerging markets tied to Chinese growth could face significant headwinds. But there’s also opportunity. Look to sectors that stand to benefit from reshoring initiatives, such as domestic manufacturing, infrastructure development, and advanced technologies like AI and robotics.

Inflationary forces

Despite campaign promises to bring prices down, Trump’s policies may end up being inflationary. His plans for massive infrastructure spending, combined with increased defence budgets, could drive demand and push prices higher. Add to that potential tariff hikes and their ripple effects on consumer goods, and you’ve got an environment ripe for inflationary pressures.

Investors should brace for this by considering assets that perform well in inflationary periods. Commodities like gold, inflation-protected securities, and certain real estate investments could act as hedges.

At the same time, keep a close eye on the bond market, where rising yields could spell trouble for tech and growth stocks that have thrived in a low-interest-rate environment.

The Deregulation Jackpot

Trump’s first term was marked by sweeping deregulation, and there’s no reason to believe he’ll change course.

From energy to finance to tech, expect a rollback of regulations that could boost profitability in key sectors. Energy companies, in particular, could see a resurgence as Trump leans into fossil fuels and downplays green energy initiatives.

However, this doesn’t mean investors should abandon ESG (environmental, social, and governance) principles. The broader global trend is still moving toward sustainability, and a divergence in U.S. policy might create new arbitrage opportunities for investors willing to balance short-term gains with long-term ESG commitments.

Tax cuts

Trump has already floated the idea of additional tax cuts, particularly for middle-class Americans and businesses.

If enacted, these cuts could spur consumer spending and boost corporate earnings, especially in retail and other discretionary sectors. But the flip side of lower taxes is a ballooning deficit, which could eventually put pressure on interest rates and the dollar.

For investors, the potential tax changes underscore the importance of diversification. U.S. equities might get a temporary boost, but global markets, particularly in regions less affected by Trump’s policy swings, could provide stability and growth.

Geopolitical wild card

Then there’s Trump himself—the ultimate geopolitical wild card. His unorthodox approach to diplomacy could create flashpoints, from renewed tensions with Iran to abrupt shifts in NATO or U.S.-Asia relations. Such unpredictability can create short-term volatility, which active investors can use to their advantage if positioned strategically.

Safe-haven assets like gold, the Swiss franc, or even Bitcoin (an asset Trump himself has softened his stance on) might see surges during moments of heightened uncertainty. Meanwhile, defence and cybersecurity stocks could shine as geopolitical tensions escalate.

Don’t get caught off guard

The biggest mistake investors can make right now is assuming Trump 2.0 will look like his first term—or that it won’t happen at all. The reality is that his policies, while often erratic, tend to have far-reaching impacts on markets.

Investors who recognise this early and position themselves accordingly will be better prepared to capitalise on opportunities and mitigate risks.

Time is of the essence. The markets are forward-looking, and the smartest investors are already baking Trump’s potential policies into their strategies.

Whether you’re bullish or bearish on his return, one thing is clear: Trump 2.0 will not be business as usual.

So, tighten your seatbelt and sharpen your strategy. Trump’s second term isn’t just a political event—it’s a market-shaping force. Prepare for it now, or risk being left behind when the ride begins.

Written by
December 13, 2024
Written by
Nigel Green